A recent, thorough systematic review has revealed that solar photovoltaics (PV) will provide the majority of the world's energy in the foreseeable future. According to estimates, the technology will generate about 61% of the electricity globally by the year 2050.
Researchers from LUT University in Finland, Leibniz University Hannover in Germany, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, and the Technical University of Denmark have conducted the study, which compiled and analyzed knowledge from no less than 60 peer-reviewed studies on the topic of energy transition in terms of power, heating, and transport systems. The results of the research were published in such leading journals as Progress in Photovoltaics and Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews and demonstrate the impressive journey of solar technology from a niche intervention to the key part of the future energy system.
From Niche to Global Backbone
The transformation of solar PV from a laboratory phenomenon to a conventional electricity source is remarkable. In a review of over 1,000 publications from the early 1970s, researchers have recognized 29 important achievements in the methodology and data analysis of solar PV research. The analysis started from visionary research in the 1970s, proceeded to modeling on an hourly basis during the 2010s, and has reached the current techniques of multi-sector multi-node optimization.
"Solar PV has found its way into the energy system faster than any electricity source in the history of humankind," the researchers note, attributing this unprecedented growth to plummeting costs, near-universal availability, and diversified system applications. Today, commercial solar modules typically achieve 20–22% efficiency, while advanced research cells under concentrated sunlight have exceeded 40%.
The Numbers Behind the Revolution
The main result shows both significant agreement and surprising divergence. The majority of studies predict that solar PV and wind energy combined will account for between 80% and 99% of total electricity generation by 2050. However, the predictions concerning solely solar PV represent a very wide range of results, varying from 5% to 98% depending on such factors as the number of solar full-load hours, assumptions made regarding solar technology and its economics, as well as the complexity of modeling process.
Yet even the more conservative estimates underscore solar's transformative potential. On a global level, studies increasingly find a PV share of 60–80% in total primary energy supply around mid-century, with a 61% projected average across transition studies. Several research teams have identified the global electricity generation contribution of solar PV to be in the range of 60–80% by mid-century.
Outdated Models Underestimate Solar's True Potential
A critical finding of the review is that many energy transition models continue to underestimate solar PV's future role due to outdated cost assumptions. Capital expenditure figures for utility-scale solar PV in 2050 used in reviewed studies range from €151 to €720 per kilowatt - with approximately 18% of studies still assuming costs above €500/kW, a level that solar PV has already undercut in the real world today.
"Because solar PV costs have fallen faster than almost any scenario expected, models carrying these legacy figures systematically understate the future role of solar PV," the researchers warn. This cost revolution has been enabled by over five decades of cumulative advances in PV module cost reduction, performance, and reliability.
The numbers don't lie. In 2025 solar photo-voltaics became the biggest contributor to the increase in energy supply globally, being responsible for over 25% of the increase in energy supply, for the very first time in recorded history of using renewable sources in energy supply. In 2025 world saw an increase of 605 GW of solar energy capacity with total generated solar energy exceeding output produced in 2022 and accounting for more than 8% of total energy generation worldwide. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), total solar energy capacity in 2025 equal to 2392GW, what is 47% of total renewable energy capacity.
Beyond Electricity: The Solar-to-X Economy
Solar PV's influence now extends far beyond conventional grid electricity into hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy industry and long-distance transport. Abundant, low-cost solar electricity enables the production of green hydrogen, e-fuels, sustainable chemicals, and clean water through Power-to-X pathways. Integrating sector coupling and e-fuel pathways significantly boosts the overall value and utilization of solar PV within the broader energy economy.
In the most advanced 100% renewable energy system analyses, solar PV is now described in up to eight distinct system applications, with hourly resolution, in interconnected multi-node study designs covering all sectors - power, heat, transport, industry, desalination, and carbon dioxide removal. Comprehensive Power-to-X routes and broad flexibility portfolios, including grids, storage, demand response, and diversified sector coupling, have become integral to modern energy planning.
Challenges and the Path Forward
Despite the overwhelmingly positive outlook, the researchers caution that even a basic PV system differentiation - such as distinguishing ground-mounted utility-scale from rooftop PV - is far from standard, with only 16% of all studies including this differentiation. This represents a significant gap in modeling accuracy that must be addressed.
Energy planners and policymakers are urged to continuously update cost curves and technology frameworks to avoid building energy systems based on outdated assumptions. As the International Energy Agency forecasts, renewables are set to overtake coal as the top power source in 2026, with solar PV expected to overtake wind power, becoming the world's second-largest renewable source of electricity generation after hydropower.
The Dawn of the Solar Age
"Solar PV has emerged as a core solution for a sustainable civilisation on its path towards the Solar Age," the researchers conclude. After five decades of cumulative research, technological advancement, and cost reduction, what began as an expensive laboratory curiosity has become the most affordable and fastest-growing energy source in human history.
With the world already operating over 2 terawatts of PV capacity and more than 75 terawatts predicted in many scenarios by 2050, the evidence is clear: the solar revolution is not coming - it is already here. The question is no longer whether solar PV will become the world's dominant energy source, but how quickly we can harness its full potential to build a sustainable, decarbonized future for all.
