A team of researchers from Peking University has published the first comprehensive quantification of how climate change will affect Solar PV systems on a global scale. The results have been published in the prestigious energy journal Joule and have indicated that increasing temperatures will rapidly degrade Solar PV systems physically, reduce their expected useful life, and substantially increase Solar Electricity costs, creating a severe obstacle to the transition to clean energy worldwide.
A study called Climate change will increase high-temperature risks, degradation, and costs of rooftop photovoltaics globally was done by a team from Peking University's Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics Institute, along with some researchers from other countries.
A Critical Blind Spot in a Booming Industry
Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology will likely play a crucial role in the global push to decarbonise. At present Rooftop PV systems account for approximately 50% of the world's total installed PV capacity and provide approximately 50% of all the PV demand by 2050. Rooftop systems are usually designed for long-term use, typically lasting for between 25-30 years.
While rooftop systems provide a reliable and safe source of renewable energy and have been determined to be 'virtually bomb-proof', they may become vulnerable to the very factors that they seek to mitigate – climate Change. It is known that elevated temperatures will cause a decrease in performance for a limited period of time, however that there is another more severe threat to long-term reliability; the rapid deterioration of materials through (thermo-mechanical fatigue), 'hydrolysis', and 'decomposition via UV light'. Rooftop PV systems have a higher than average risk for accelerated thermal degradation due to limited installation spacing resulting in reduced airflow for cooling purposes.
International standards for PV component reliability, like those from the IEC, use past climate data to determine high-temperature risk areas. Our research shows this isn't good enough because it doesn't consider future warming, Which could put trillions of dollars of global assets at risk.
Groundbreaking Methodology and Key Findings
To address this gap, the research team developed an interdisciplinary assessment framework. To figure out how well rooftop solar panels will work in the years ahead, our team put together a few things: corrected climate models, a model that shows how solar panel materials break down over time, and a model that looks at the costs involved. This let us simulate the long-term performance of rooftop solar and figure out the cost of the electricity it makes under different future warming conditions.
Expansion of High-Temperature Risk Zones: The study defines HTR as when a panel's operating temperature exceeds 70°C. It finds that the global footprint of HTR will expand dramatically. Compared to the historical period, the volume of rooftop PV capacity exposed to HTR is projected to increase by 29% under a 2°C warming scenario and by a staggering 97% under a 4°C scenario. Current IEC standards are shown to capture only 74% and 48% of the actual risk areas under these respective futures, indicating a severe underestimation.
Accelerated Degradation and Rising Costs: The accelerated aging directly shortens the useful service life of PV modules, reducing their total energy output over time and driving up the LCOE. Under a 2.5°C global warming scenario, the average LCOE for rooftop PV in affected cities globally is projected to rise by 4.8%, with increases in the most climate-sensitive regions reaching up to 20%. The study notes that the economic impact of this thermal degradation is likely to far exceed that of other climate factors like changes in solar radiation.
Exacerbation of Global Inequality: The research highlights a profound "climate inequality" in the distribution of this risk. Regions in the Global South-including South Asia, Africa, and South America-which are both crucial for future PV expansion and naturally hotter, will face the highest exposure to HTR and the most severe cost increases. In contrast, higher-latitude developed nations will be less affected. This means developing regions, which often have less financial resilience, will face a higher "climate premium" for their energy transition, potentially widening global inequities in access to affordable clean energy.
The table below summarizes the projected impacts under different warming scenarios:
| Global Warming Scenario | Projected Increase in PV Capacity Exposed to High-Temperature Risk (HTR) | Estimated Average Increase in Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) | Note on Standards Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| +2°C | +29% (vs. historical period) | Data modeled for +2.5°C scenario | Current standards cover only 74% of future risk areas |
| +2.5°C | -- | +4.8% (with regional increases up to 20%) | -- |
| +4°C | +97% (vs. historical period) | -- | Current standards cover only 48% of future risk areas |
Call for Action: Updated Standards and Focused Innovation
In response to these findings, the researchers issued a clear call to action for policymakers, standard-setting bodies, and the industry.
The authors of the article recommend international organizations like IEC prioritize updating product reliability testing standards by creating future climate scenarios instead of relying on past climate data.
Additionally, the authors call for the development of new renewable energy technologies, including the development of next-generation materials for PV, i.e., developing new materials that have better thermal stability, including more advanced perovskite materials, as well as modifying the design of the installation and system-level cooling to manage heat stress on PV systems.
Lastly, it is established that a "just transition" framework needs to be implemented. The global climate and energy governance system must acknowledge and address the regional inequalities that exist by providing greater support in the form of enhanced technical transfer, enhanced climate financing, and building up the capacity of developing countries to help manage the additional costs and risks associated with this energy transition for them.
Conclusion
This landmark study from Peking University sounds a critical alarm for the global energy sector. It demonstrates that climate change is not only a challenge to be solved by renewables but also a direct threat to their economic viability and long-term performance. Ensuring a robust and equitable clean energy transition now requires proactively adapting the world's solar infrastructure to the hotter world it is helping to create.
