China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) on October 16, 2026 released a draft revision of the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Specifications, raising minimum conversion efficiency thresholds for solar cells and modules and eliminating performance categories for multicrystalline and p-type products entirely. The consultation period runs until November 15. The proposal arrives alongside a separate export-control initiative covering core polysilicon, wafer, and cell technologies, together signalling a deliberate shift from volume-driven competition toward a technology-and-energy-efficiency framework for the world's dominant PV manufacturing base.
A Two-Tier Efficiency Architecture
The draft specifies different requirements for already established and new or expanded capacity and for the first time regarding the n-type technology route. The existing cell lines will have the average efficiency corresponding to at least 25.3% in case of TOPCon and HJT technologies and 25.6% in case of back contact technology where previously all existing cels had to achieve the average efficiency of at least 25.0% according to the rules for n-type cells in 2024. As for new and expanded cell lines, they will be required to achieve at least 26.2% in case of TOPCon technology, 26.0% in case of HJT and 26.6% in case of back contacts as compared to 26.0% average efficiency in case of n-type cells mentioned as a benchmark in 2024. On the module side, the existing capacity will have to achieve at least 23.4% for TOPCon and HJT technologies and 23.7% for back contact processes while the new or expanded technologies will be required to reach 24.2%, 24.0%, and 24.4% accordingly, instead of the same 23.1% for n-type cells two years ago.
Upward improvements in industries have been noteworthy. According to the CPIA statistics from 2025, average efficiency rates were at 25.7% for TOPCons, 25.9% for HJTs, and 26.5% for bi-facial modules. The new building benchmarks set at 26.2%, 26.0%, and 26.6% are therefore in line with the current industry averages, and thus a new entrant cannot pass the threshold by reaching the existing standard line. In the case of tandem modules, new production lines would need more than 27% efficiency compared to 25% for existing technologies, and new perovskite modules would be needed more than 20% efficiency.
Upstream and Structural Tightening
The efficiency thresholds are embedded in a broader tightening of manufacturing conditions. New polysilicon projects using the trichlorosilane route would face a comprehensive electricity consumption limit of 37 kWh/kg, down sharply from a prior general benchmark of 53 kWh/kg, with silane fluidized-bed projects capped at 15 kWh/kg. Water consumption at new polysilicon facilities would be directly limited to 30 cubic meters per metric ton. The minimum absolute R&D expenditure requirement doubles to CNY 20 million, while the 30% minimum equity-capital ratio for new and expanded projects remains unchanged. The draft also introduces a maximum degradation limit of 8.6% under combined environmental stress testing and strengthens post-listing oversight, including removal from the compliance list for companies that fall out of compliance. Notably, industry self-regulation results would, for the first time, factor substantively into decisions on inclusion in MIIT's published compliance list-aging mechanism that analysts interpret as embedding supply-chain credit discipline into the access framework.
From Guidance to Binding Floor
While the Specifications document explicitly states that it is intended only as guidance and not a prerequisite for administrative approval, its applicability is determined by how local authorities, lending institutions, and state-owned purchasers use the compliance list. However, there are already some steps towards enforceable legislation being taken. The mandatory national standard GB 47834-2026 was issued in June 2026 and will enter into force on January 1, 2027. The regulation prescribes minimum values of energy efficiency and a three-level classification for silicon modules. Grade 3 marks the lowest permissible value – approx. 23.2% for TOPCon and HJT modules, and 23.5% for BC modules. As restrictions on manufacturing and sales of non-compliant products are placed in the Standardization Law, the Grade 3 value plays the role of a concrete threshold rather than a target.
Supply-Side Consequences
The combined effect is a structural squeeze on older capacity. Huatai Securities estimates that the efficiency thresholds could phase out approximately 327.6 GW of capacity, or roughly 33% of the industry total, with TOPCon accounting for the bulk of the reduction at a 38% elimination rate, HJT at 19%, and BC essentially unaffected. SMM analysts place the expected elimination at around 30% of total capacity, while cautioning that not all of this represents actively operating lines. Shenwan Hongyuan's assessment emphasizes that the core logic is not "restricting expansion" but using administrative standards to accelerate supply contraction, allowing leading manufacturers with advanced stock capacity to capture a steeper earnings recovery once demand stabilises. The elimination of p-type and multicrystalline entries from the Specifications is described in that analysis not as an immediate shutdown order but as the revocation of p-type assets' "compliance identity" within the policy resource-allocation system, with downstream effects on credit access, energy entitlements, and state-owned procurement eligibility unfolding gradually.
For an industry that has spent successive cycles competing primarily on price, the proposed standards redirect the basis of competition toward conversion efficiency, energy consumption, and capital discipline. The gap between the 23.4% existing-capacity module floor and the 24.0%–24.4% new-build thresholds creates a clear incentive structure: incremental capacity must leapfrog, not merely replicate, the installed base. Whether through the guiding Specifications or the binding GB standard, the message to manufacturers is consistent-efficiency is no longer a differentiator at the margin, but the baseline condition for participation.
