Despite high latitude, the Nordic nation is projected to install nearly 70 GW of solar capacity by 2050-outcompeting new nuclear and forming a synergistic backbone with wind power.
HELSINKI - When energy professionals think of Finland, they typically picture snowy winters, vast forests, and a heavy reliance on nuclear power and bioenergy. Solar photovoltaic (PV) rarely comes to mind as a cornerstone of a Nordic nation's energy strategy. But a growing body of energy system research from LUT University is challenging that assumption-and the findings are striking.
Far from being a marginal player, solar PV is projected to become the dominant technology by installed capacity in Finland's future energy system. Across multiple scenarios, the country's solar PV capacity is set to expand from nearly 2 gigawatts (GW) today to 68 GW by 2050-representing 62% of the nation's total installed electrical capacity and 30% of the electricity generated.
The 'Nightless Night' Advantage
One of the most persistent myths in the energy sector is that high-latitude regions cannot rely on solar PV. The research flips this assumption on its head by highlighting the phenomenon of the "Nightless Night." In regions like Finnish Lapland, situated largely within the Arctic Circle, solar irradiation during the summer months can be available around the clock.
This midnight sun creates a powerful seasonal complementarity with Finland's abundant wind energy resources. While onshore wind power dominates the winter months-when wind speeds are highest-solar PV surges in the spring and summer, filling the electricity generation gap precisely when wind speeds drop. Studies on spatial optimization of solar and wind capacities have highlighted this complementary nature, with seasonal and daily patterns supporting their synergistic potential to stabilize the grid.
"The lesson here is clear: solar PV's value is not just in its annual yield, but in its seasonal timing," the researchers note. By dominating the summer, PV allows the system to harvest wind energy from fall to spring and use bioenergy as a flexibility provider-creating a robust, year-round renewable base supply. In practical terms, solar power plants located along the Finnish coast already generate 10–15% more energy than those built inland, thanks to fewer cloudy days.
Solar Outcompetes New Nuclear
The research delivers a particularly stark message for Finland's nuclear ambitions. While Finland pledged to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 at the COP28 climate summit, the economic reality tells a different story. When pitted against solar PV and wind power in a free-market cost optimization, new nuclear power cannot compete-including small modular reactors (SMRs).
According to the study, a "nuclear tripling" scenario results in annualized system costs that are 71% to 84% higher than a renewables-driven system. Even when applying extremely optimistic financing assumptions with a favorable cost of capital for nuclear power, the heavily solar PV- and wind-based system remains 37% cheaper.
Thanks to the precipitous drop in solar PV capital expenditures, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in Finland's near-100% renewable energy scenarios plummets to roughly €33 per megawatt-hour by 2050. For policymakers and energy investors, the opportunity cost is glaring: prioritizing expensive SMRs diverts crucial capital away from rapidly deployable solar PV projects that offer a faster and significantly cheaper route to decarbonization.
Deep Sector Coupling: The Industrial Game-Changer
Finland's economy is dominated by heavy, energy-intensive industries such as pulp and paper, cement, steel, and chemicals-sectors that are notoriously hard to electrify. In Southeast Finland alone, industry accounts for 80% of final energy demand.
The answer lies in deep sector coupling and Power-to-X technologies. During the summer months, when solar PV generation peaks and electricity prices approach zero, the abundant power can be channeled into electrolyzers to produce vast quantities of green hydrogen. This hydrogen can be fed directly into green steel manufacturing or stored in underground caverns to run e-fuel and e-chemical synthesis plants continuously throughout the year.
Finland also holds a unique advantage: its large pulp and paper mills emit millions of tonnes of biogenic CO₂. Point-source capture of this CO₂ provides a large economic advantage over extracting CO₂ directly from the air. The research reveals that when point-source capture is utilized, biomass-fueled power plants and pulp and paper mills become the primary CO₂ suppliers, contributing 93.8% of the total CO₂ required for e-fuel and e-chemical synthesis.
By combining cheap solar PV and wind electricity with captured biogenic CO₂, Finland is positioned to become a major European hub for sustainable e-methanol, e-ammonia, and Fischer-Tropsch liquids. Solar PV and wind power essentially act as the primary engine converting industrial waste CO₂ into high-value, exportable green fuels.
Heating in a Freezing Climate
In a country where heating is a matter of survival, the research reveals another unexpected synergy. As solar PV pushes electricity prices toward zero during sunny periods, electric boilers can convert electricity into heat, which is stored in district heating thermal energy storage tanks. Interestingly, the models often select simple, low-cost resistive electric heaters over highly efficient heat pumps for industrial and district heating-because solar PV provides such abundant and cheap electricity in the summer that the low upfront cost of electric boilers outweighs the efficiency gains of more expensive heat pumps.
A Global Lesson
The research offers several takeaways for the global solar industry. First, latitude is not a limit: if solar PV can become the backbone of a Nordic nation's energy system, its viability in temperate and equatorial regions is unquestionable. Second, the "Nightless Night" proves that extreme summer generation can offset winter deficits when paired with wind power. Third, solar PV is the low-cost enabler of sector coupling-its true value extends far beyond the power grid, serving as the catalyst for the Power-to-X economy. By oversizing PV to run electrolyzers and electric boilers during peak sun, industries can store energy as molecules and thermal energy, bridging the gap between summer sun and winter demand.
The total transition for Finland entails investments of €460 billion until 2050, with 100 GW of renewable energy capacities, 19 GW of Power-to-X capacities, and electrification of heat supply for industry-leading to an energy-industry system with lower annualized costs than today.
With more than 300 utility-scale solar projects already planned in Finland, totaling 26 GW of capacity, the foundations are being laid for a transformation that could redefine what is possible for renewable energy in high-latitude regions. The midnight sun, it turns out, may be Finland's most undervalued energy resource.
