BEIJING - Free-on-board China TOPCon solar cell prices slipped in the second week of October, ending two consecutive weeks of stability and deepening a retreat from late-summer highs, as weak overseas demand met an industry push to establish explicit price floors.
According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Oct. 13, FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices fell 0.86% week on week to $0.0463/W, while 210R formats declined 0.66% to $0.0454/W. Both specifications now sit approximately 13% below their late-August peaks. The declines followed the Golden Week holiday, a period that typically resets buying patterns but this year coincided with softening signals from key export markets.
Demand-side pressures mount
The weakness is not confined to one destination. A trader source cited by OPIS said U.S. restrictions on stockpiling polysilicon and its derivatives - a temporary rule ahead of Section 232 measures due to take effect on Dec. 4 - were expected to further erode overseas demand and weigh on cell prices. In India, a manufacturer reported that an earlier buying rush from the commercial and industrial segment was tapering. An extended exemption allows eligible C&I projects commissioned by Dec. 31, 2026, to forgo approved India-made cells, but elevated FOB China prices and the approaching deadline have made further stockpiling commercially unattractive.
Domestic demand has also been slower to recover than the industry had hoped. China added 97.19 GW of solar capacity in January-August, down more than 57% year on year, according to National Energy Administration data. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association forecast in February that 2026 installations would reach 180–240 GW, down roughly 24%–43% from the record 315.07 GW added in 2025. Hitting that range would require average monthly additions of 20.7–35.7 GW from September through December, against about 12.1 GW a month in the January-August period.
The price-floor question
The price declines have unfolded against a backdrop of intensifying industry self-discipline efforts. On Oct. 11, senior executives from several major solar manufacturers met in Hangzhou to discuss cost calculations, sales pricing and production cuts. Although neither the meeting nor its reported outcomes have been officially confirmed, market participants said the discussions yielded more detailed implementation plans for capacity restrictions and a proposal to set a minimum polysilicon price of CNY 43 ($6.38)/kg.
Chinese media subsequently reported that the meeting - attended by eight leading polysilicon producers - also established explicit floor prices for cells. BC cells were to be quoted no lower than CNY 0.86/W, and TOPCon cells no lower than CNY 0.79/W, with the same thresholds applying to export orders, social procurement and tendering processes. The meeting further proposed a peer-monitoring mechanism, encouraging companies to report suspected below-cost dumping and urging regulators to investigate procurement practices that undercut the industry's pricing system.
The floor discussions represent an escalation of the "anti-involution" campaign that began in August, when eight polysilicon producers signed a pledge in Shanghai to sell no product below fully accounted cost. A follow-up meeting in Chengdu established a production-cut and self-discipline framework, and the Hangzhou gathering sought to translate those principles into enforceable price thresholds and capacity restrictions.
Execution gap remains wide
Whether the floors can hold is another matter. Market analysis cited by Chinese industry press points to a persistent gap between posted guidance prices and actual transaction levels. Some companies display higher list prices while completing deals at lower levels, creating a "two-track" market in which the published floor and the clearing price diverge. Component prices illustrate the challenge: mainstream TOPCon modules for centralized projects have been grinding along at roughly CNY 0.65–0.73/W, with an average near CNY 0.705/W - essentially unchanged from two months earlier and still below the industry's break-even line.
The structural difficulty is uneven concentration. Polysilicon, where eight companies control more than 90% of effective domestic capacity, lends itself more readily to coordinated discipline. The module and cell segments involve a far larger number of participants with different cost structures, alongside sprawling tendering processes and overseas export contracts, making identical floor-price enforcement significantly harder. Analysts have also noted that electricity prices - and therefore end-market profitability - act as the binding constraint across the chain. If downstream returns are too thin, upstream price increases struggle to pass through.
What to watch
On the supply side, market participants continued to expect lower cell output in October, citing production-line upgrades ahead of China's new mandatory minimum efficiency requirements, which take effect on Jan. 1, 2027, and will prohibit domestic sales of modules and inverters that fail to meet the thresholds. CNMIA has forecast a gradual strengthening in utility-scale demand toward year-end as procurement for project deadlines supports buying, though participants remain skeptical that any pickup will translate into a sustained recovery in installations.
For now, the market is caught between two forces: demand signals too weak to lift prices, and an industry self-discipline framework determined to stop them from falling further. The modest post-Golden Week declines suggest the floors are not yet collapsing - but they are not yet holding the line either.
