Poland’s New Energy Strategy Projects Massive Renewables Growth by 2040

WARSAW – Poland has unveiled its updated National Energy and Climate Plan (Krajowy Plan na rzecz Energii i Klimatu – KPEiK), setting a bold course towards a low-carbon economy by 2040. The strategy envisions a dramatic surge in renewable energy sources (RES), a massive expansion of grid infrastructure, and a firm commitment to keeping electricity affordable for households and industries, marking a decisive shift away from the country's long-standing coal dependence.

The KPEiK is a plan for Poland's future energy use, presented by the Ministry of Climate and Environment of the Republic of Poland (i.e. Poland's Ministry of Climate and Environment). The KPEiK covers the next 20 years (i.e., 2020-2040) and is distinct from EU-wide targets (2020, 2030, 2020-30) in that KPEiK extends until 2040 in recognition of Poland's current energy market and lack of renewables. KPEiK calls for Poland to decrease from ~70% of its energy being generated from coal to less than 20% by 2040, with renewables to compensate for that loss.

According to Climate Minister Anna Łukaszewska-Trzeciakowska, "The future of Polish energy is clean, distributed, and resilient." At a press conference held in Warsaw, she indicated that "the KPEiK is not just a compliance document; it is a growth strategy." As part of the growth strategy, we anticipate that there will be more wind farms in the Baltic Sea, more rooftop solar, and more degraded land available for solar. Additionally, the Polish grid will be modernised, enabling it to distribute clean electricity across the country.

Poland's electricity grid is aging and congested, so addressing this issue is one of KPEiK's main bottlenecks. In the first five years of the plan, Poland intends to invest 150 billion PLN (approximately €34 billion) to upgrade the transmission or distribution of power by 2040, which will include improvements such as digital substations, smart meters, and cross-border interconnectors. A primary investment area will be upgrading the backbone transmission network from the northern coastline (where offshore wind will be generated) to the southern industrial regions (Silesia and Małopolska).

"The renewable revolution will end at the transformer station without a revolution for the grid," stated Dr Marek Kowalski, director of the Polish Grid Society. "The investment made in KPEiK on smart grids and energy storage (i.e., 8 gigawatts by 2040) is both overdue and exceedingly welcome."

In light of the public's growing concerns about increasing utility costs, energy affordability is recognized as one of the key factors guiding government policy. In order to support low-income households, there are several programs that provide financial assistance, including special rates for low-end customers, a "green modernization fund" with no-interest loans for weatherization and heat pumps, and a stability mechanism that limits electric price increases during extreme weather conditions. By reducing imported fossil fuels, domestic renewable energy sources are expected to be between 30-40% lower than coal-powered generation by the year 2035, which will also reduce future energy costs significantly.

"Affordability cannot be something that is considered after the fact -- it must be taken into account when determining how well people will accept the transition to alternative forms of energy," said Deputy Climate Minister Piotr Woźniak. "Every person must view this change as an opportunity, not a hardship."

While projections are positive, analysts note the number of challenges ahead. For example, Poland coal miners' unions have also joined in opposing the government's plans by calling it "too fast", thus posing the risk of social instability in mining areas, such as Silesia. The government has established a Just Transition fund of €3 billion as well as a re-training scheme and early retirement options for the miners; however, implementation has been inconsistent.

Meanwhile, environmental groups have said that 2040 targets are not sufficiently aggressive. "Because wind and solar power is dropping in price, Poland could achieve 80% renewable electricity by 2035", said Joanna Flisowska from ClientEarth. "The plans still leave too much opportunity to use gas as a transitional fuel which could mean those assets would remain unused."

The European Commission will review the KPEiK over the coming months, but Warsaw has signalled that it will finance the transformation largely through EU recovery funds (approx. 160 billion PLN), the Modernisation Fund, and private capital. A first tender for offshore wind is scheduled for late 2026.

The KPEiK now enters a two-month public consultation period before final approval. If implemented as designed, Poland will transform from Central Europe's coal king into a renewable energy hub, cutting CO₂ emissions by 65% from 1990 levels by 2040. For the 38 million Poles, the shift promises cleaner air, lower import bills, and a more independent energy system – but only if the plan's ambitious timelines meet reality.

As Minister Łukaszewska-Trzeciakowska put it: "We have the money, the technology, and the public will. Now we need the discipline to execute." Whether Poland can accelerate its green surge without leaving its coal communities behind will be the defining test of the decade.