Contrary to any expectation of a price decline, the energy storage battery market has been in a clear upward price cycle since September 2025. Based on the mainstream 314Ah lithium iron phosphate (LFP) storage cell, prices have risen by more than 20% cumulatively over the period, moving through several distinct phases: steady upward pressure, accelerated increases, high-level consolidation, and renewed across-the-board price hikes. As of October 2026, the upward momentum has not ended; it has spread from cells to the wider storage supply chain.
Phase 1: September 2025 - The Starting Point of Tightening
In September 2025, the average price of square LFP storage cells was already edging higher. The 314Ah product was quoted at approximately RMB 0.299/Wh, while the 100Ah product averaged about RMB 0.373/Wh. Demand remained strong in the third quarter, mainstream cell makers operated at high utilization rates, and second- and third-tier suppliers raised transaction prices by RMB 0.003–0.005/Wh. Lithium carbonate held above RMB 70,000/tonne, providing cost support. The market was transitioning from oversupply toward a tight balance.
Phase 2: Q4 2025 - Raw Material Push and Accelerating Increases
In the fourth quarter of 2025, lithium carbonate rose from RMB 70,000–80,000/tonne in Q3 to RMB 80,000–100,000/tonne. By December, battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged RMB 103,000/tonne, up 17% month on month. LFP cathode materials, electrolyte, and copper foil also increased, pushing average storage cell prices up by 2%–3% per month. By late December, the 314Ah cell average had reached RMB 0.318/Wh, about 6.4% higher than in September. Leading cell makers had orders booked into Q1 2026, with some orders spilling over to smaller manufacturers for toll processing-a clear sign that supply tightness had become entrenched.
Phase 3: January–February 2026 - A Sharp Step-Up
Early 2026 brought a marked acceleration. On 6 February, the 314Ah cell average rose by 4.96% in a single pricing update to RMB 0.360/Wh, while the 100Ah product rose 3.02% to RMB 0.443/Wh. Market reports suggested that even at RMB 0.37–0.38/Wh, spot supply was difficult to secure. The increase was no longer explained by lithium carbonate alone: electrolyte, copper, and other input costs rose in parallel, pushing up the bill-of-materials cost across multiple links.
Phase 4: March–September 2026 - High-Level Consolidation
From March onward, prices remained firm at elevated levels. 314Ah battery cells had an average price of around RMB 0.36 to RMB 0.39/Wh in April. Some of the largest producers in the industry were charging over RMB 0.40/Wh. This figure is almost 25% to 35% higher than what the market has been used to since late 2025 because it was assumed to be around RMB 0.26 to RMB 0.31/Wh then. By September of the same year, the average price of 314Ah had settled at approximately RMB 0.365/Wh, reflecting an overall increase of more than 20% stems from a sudden spike. Additionally, in June 2026, lithium carbonate rose above RMB 210,000./tonne.
Phase 5: October 2026 - Supply-Chain-Wide Price Increases
In October, the upward cycle broadened. CATL's online store raised its 314Ah storage cell quote from RMB 0.395/Wh to RMB 0.403/Wh, while its 587Ah large-format cell was first listed at RMB 0.415/Wh. More importantly, price increases spread across the entire chain. Growatt announced increases of 6%–10% for storage systems and 5%–10% for string inverters from 8 October. Since July, 20-plus firms, including Sungrow, EVE Energy, and Sinexcel, have sent out adjusted price notices that reflect up to a 30% increase in price for cathode materials, cells, PCS, and full storage solutions. Furthermore, the policy also caused upward price pressure: a 2% consumption tax was imposed on lithium batteries starting September 1, 2026, with an increase to 4% planned for 2027, while export tax rebates were reduced.
Key Drivers
The cycle has been driven by both cost push and supply-demand pull. On the cost side, lithium carbonate rebounded from below RMB 60,000/tonne in mid-2025 to more than RMB 210,000/tonne in June 2026, adding roughly RMB 0.09–0.10/Wh to cell costs. Electrolyte and copper foil rose simultaneously, while the restored consumption tax and lower export rebates raised comprehensive costs further. On the supply-demand side, global storage demand expanded faster than expected. Storage battery shipment growth in 2026 is estimated at 40%–50%, while capacity release has lagged. Leading manufacturers remain fully booked, and pricing power has shifted from buyers to sellers.
Outlook
In short, from September 2025 to October 2026, storage battery prices completed a major upward cycle-initiated by a tight balance, accelerated by soaring raw materials, and consolidated by supply-chain-wide cost resonance. The market remains in an upward pricing channel. For industry participants, the key issue is no longer whether prices will fall, but how long the current cost and supply tightness will persist, and how policy measures-especially consumption tax and export rebate adjustments-will reshape delivered costs and global competitiveness.
